Step by step
1. Everyone of the age you chose
We start with the number of men or women at each year of age, from the US Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS), about 2.15 million people per year of age nationally. For a city we use that metro area's share of the US population.
2. Keep the singles
Single means never married, divorced or widowed, and not living with a partner. We use the share of single people at each age, by sex, from ACS marital status and household tables.
3. Apply each standard to who is left
Each filter keeps its real share of the people still in the pool, the same way an advertiser sizes an audience. The order doesn't change the final number.
Data behind each filter
| Filter | Source | How it's modeled |
|---|---|---|
| Height | CDC NHANES | Normal distribution. Men: mean 69.0 in, SD 2.9. Women: mean 63.5 in, SD 2.7. |
| Income | Census CPS, ACS | Lognormal. Median personal income $50k for men, $38k for women, adjusted for age and metro area. |
| Degree | Census educational attainment | 36% of men and 40% of women hold a bachelor's degree, adjusted by metro. |
| Smoking | CDC NHIS | 13.1% of men and 10.1% of women smoke. |
| Obesity | CDC NHANES | 42% of adults have a BMI of 30 or higher. |
| Wants kids | Pew Research Center | Share of childless adults who expect to have children, by age. |
Limits
Filters are treated as independent. In real life income, education and health go together. For strict combinations the true number is usually somewhat higher than our estimate.
Cities are metro areas, not city limits, and use national single rates adjusted only for income and education.
Rounded inputs. The site is in beta: we're checking every figure against the latest source tables, and will note updates on this page.
Treat the result as a good estimate of scale, not a head count.
Sources
- US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-year estimates: population by age and sex, marital status, educational attainment.
- US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement: personal income by sex and age.
- CDC National Center for Health Statistics, NHANES: anthropometric reference data (height), obesity prevalence.
- CDC National Health Interview Survey: current cigarette smoking among adults.
- Pew Research Center: surveys of US adults without children on plans to have children.